Copper at the crossroads : assessing the interactions of the low carbon energy transition with a non-ferrous and structural metal
Clément Bonnet  1, *@  , Emmanuel Hache  1@  , Samuel Carcanague  2@  , Gondia Seck  1@  , Marine Simoën  1@  
1 : IFP Energies Nouvelles  (IFPEN)  -  Website
IFP Energies Nouvelles
1 Avenue du Bois Préau, 92500 Rueil-Malmaison -  France
2 : Institut des Relations Internationales et Stratégiques  (IRIS)
IFP Energies Nouvelles
2 Bis Rue Mercœur, 75011 Paris -  France
* : Corresponding author

The aim of this article is to assess the impact of copper availability on the energy transition and to answer the question whether or not copper might become critical due to the high copper content of low-carbon technologies of the electricity and the transport sectors. Due to its physical properties and to its numerous applications, the consumption of copper has significantly increased since the beginning of the 1960s. Because low-carbon technologies have higher copper contents compared to conventional technologies, we can expect the energy transition toward a low-carbon system to contribute to increase further the demand for copper. In order to assess the copper availability in 2055, we rely on our linear programming World energy-transport model, TIAM-IFPEN based on the ETSAP-TIAM model (Times Integrated Assessment Model. ETSAP-TIAM) which is the global multiregional incarnation of the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) model generator to compute a partial equilibrium and we conduct two climate scenarios (2°C and 4°C) with two shapes of mobility each and we also introduce recycling policy. The penetration of low-carbon technologies in the transport and energy sectors (electric vehicles, low-carbon power generation technologies, etc.) tends to increase copper demand drastically by 2055. However, our article highlights the public policy drivers that can mitigate our results. On the one hand, public policy based on an integrated approach to urban land-use and transport planning could help to reduce copper consumption in transport sector. On the other hand, recycling policies must be better targeted to reduce the dependency of some countries on copper imports.


footer.html